In most cases, the expert is the one most likely to hesitate with an answer. If it’s a really big question they usually default to the biggest answer but hem-and-haw about minutiae. Big questions are too messy and complex. If a detail is questioned then they want to verify their answer before putting it out into the world. Getting it right is just too important to these folks.

It’s not always true but the more and the louder someone yaps about something the less I am inclined to trust their answer. Especially if it’s a complex subject. Especially if they pound their fist on the table and talk really loud. Forced confidence is a cover-up.

It’s counterintuitive but many experts agree on one thing: no one really knows anything. And that’s always a good starting place.